Trump likely to go soft on H1-B visas: Experts
Many tech giants and businesses supporting Trump in his bid to presidency; His poll promise to stop outsourcing, as experts opine, is mostly directed at China
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One potentially mitigating factor this time is that some tech and large business are supporting him this time. Trump has shown that he listens to those who support him and particularly those who contribute to his cause. It is likely that there will be more moderating influences this time around which will go some way in mitigating his action - Peter Bendor Samuel, CEO, Everest Group
Visa Worries:
- Trump’s no outsourcing rhetoric aimed at mfg
- Indian IT firms aggressively localised in last 8 yrs
- Thus reducing dependence on H1B visas
Bengaluru: Indian IT industry may not have to face very strict immigration norms of earlier Trump era if Donald Trump comes back to power again in the upcoming US elections.
Analysts are of the opinion that the election rhetoric of Trump on no outsourcing is more focussed on manufacturing industry than services sector. They also pointed out that many technology giants have been supportive of Trump’s bid to presidency and are donors to Trump’s political funding.
“When he (Donald Trump) refers to outsourcing, he is primarily concerned with manufacturing, and not as focused on the services space. A second consideration is that this is rhetoric aimed at winning an election and focused on the blue colour segment of the electorate. The services space affects the white colour segment and is of lesser importance. If we were to introduce tariffs against services outsourcing, he would receive very substantial push back from segment of his base that have donated significantly to him and that in the past he has shown an inclination to adjust his actions when they speak,” Peter Bendor Samuel, CEO of global consultancy firm, Everest Group, told Bizz Buzz.
Trump, who has been nominated as the presidential candidate of the Republican Party, recently said that his administration would stop outsourcing if elected to power. Though the poll promise is mostly directed at China for making the US self-reliant in manufacturing sector, the $245-billion strong Indian IT industry is worried as it counts North America as its biggest geographical contributor.
During his last stint as President, Trump administration had brought in several measures to discourage immigration of professional workers from India to the US. During that period, cost of H1-B visa application had been raised along with undue delay in processing both H1B and L1 visa applications. These work visas are primarily used by Indian IT firms and global technology giants to send engineers from India to work in onsite locations like the US.
Such was the scenario that several mid-tier firms were not able to execute projects in the US owing to short of skilled engineers.
However, analysts pointed out that many technology leaders are funding Trump’s election bid with big donations. This is likely to tilt the policies of Trump administration in favour of the technology industry if he is elected to power.
“One potentially mitigating factor this time is that some tech and large business are supporting him this time. He has shown that he listens to those who support him and particularly those who contribute to his cause. It is likely that there will be more moderating influences this time around which will go some way in mitigating his action,” Bendor Samuel said.
Meanwhile, under Biden administration, Indian IT firms have actively followed localisation approach with hiring of US nationals for executing projects. According to study, India’s top seven IT services companies saw a 56 per cent decline in their usage of H-1Bwork visas over the last eight years. This is likely to put Indian IT firms in a good stead even if strict work immigration norms are followed, sources said.
